Sport Picks
Atletico La Paz vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Guaycura, La Paz 
Match Events
7'
7'
Robles C.
Assist: Zurita Jimenez U.
65'
65'
Del Aguila Y.
65'
65'
Sub
Alvarez D. In: Robles A.
Out: Alvarez D.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Tepatitlan de Morelos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Atletico La Paz haven't matched Tepatitlan de Morelos's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Tepatitlan de Morelos's way, sitting at 40%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 18%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico La Paz | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 12 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico La Paz
0:1
Mar 22, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico La Paz
4:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:5
Jan 24, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Robles C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Mendoza B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico La Paz 28 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico La Paz Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TEP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atletico La Paz scored in 86% of their last 29 games.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Tepatitlan de Morelos let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.
Atletico La Paz has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Atletico La Paz VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico La Paz
(Home) 01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
11 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
11 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
28 Mar
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Jaiba Brava
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
08 Mar
Atletico La Paz
2 : 0 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 3
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
24 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
17 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
10 May
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
10 May
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 May
Zacatecas Mineros
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
23 Apr
Atlante
2 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
11 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)