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Atletico Mineros vs Castro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Iglesias I.
88' Event
Fernandez D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 game between Atletico Mineros and Castro finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Atletico Mineros
20%
Draws
36%
Castro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atletico Mineros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castro come out ahead of Atletico Mineros on wins alone.
  • Castro are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Atletico Mineros Clean Sheet 16%
Castro Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Mineros Castro
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.93 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.08 1.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Atletico Mineros
0:2
Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Mineros vs Castro
0:2
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Atletico Mineros
2:0
May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Mineros vs Castro
1:1
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Atletico Mineros
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Mineros Compare

Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.54

Castro Compare

Top Goalscorer Iglesias I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.82

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Mineros 28 / 100
Castro 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Mineros Castro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castro let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Atletico Mineros scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Atletico Mineros stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Mineros VS Castro
0.67 Goals Scored 1.13
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.5
83% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Mineros

(Home)
03 Oct
Atletico Mineros
0 : 4
UD Samano
27 Sept
Castro
0 : 2
Atletico Mineros
19 Sept
Atletico Mineros
0 : 2
Cayon CD
13 Sept
CD Revilla
4 : 0
Atletico Mineros
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 6

Castro

(Away)
04 Oct
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
27 Sept
Castro
0 : 2
Atletico Mineros
19 Sept
CD Revilla
2 : 2
Castro
13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0
Solares
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Samano 34 20 10 4 52:22 70
2 CD Tropezon 34 20 7 7 58:30 67
3 Atletico Albericia 34 19 7 8 64:39 64
4 Cayon CD 34 19 5 10 61:41 62
5 Castro 34 16 11 7 45:26 59
6 Vimenor 34 17 6 11 63:42 57
7 Bezana 34 15 9 10 46:41 54
8 Torina 34 14 8 12 49:44 50
9 CD Barquereno 34 13 10 11 60:59 49
10 Guarnizo 34 11 15 8 44:37 48
11 CD Revilla 34 12 6 16 46:53 42
12 CD Colindres 34 9 9 16 36:53 36
13 Gama 34 9 9 16 34:56 36
14 Atletico Mineros 34 9 8 17 33:58 35
15 Barreda Balompie 34 8 10 16 49:65 34
16 Naval Reinosa 34 9 6 19 40:59 33
17 CD Siete Villas 34 7 7 20 29:53 28
18 CD Monte 34 5 5 24 33:64 20
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2024/2025 (Play Offs)