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Atletico Mineros vs Guarnizo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Esteban E.
56' Event
Franco T.
60' Event
Cagigas M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 game between Atletico Mineros and Guarnizo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Mineros.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Atletico Mineros
15%
Draws
34%
Guarnizo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico Mineros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Atletico Mineros haven't matched Guarnizo's recent run of results.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Atletico Mineros Clean Sheet 12%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Mineros Guarnizo
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 17
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 0.93 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.66 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.58 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Mineros vs Guarnizo
2:1
Mar 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Atletico Mineros
0:0
Nov 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Mineros vs Guarnizo
0:0
Apr 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Atletico Mineros vs Guarnizo
0:3
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Atletico Mineros
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Mineros Compare

Top Goalscorer Esteban E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Franco T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.29

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cagigas M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Mineros 30 / 100
Guarnizo 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Mineros Guarnizo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarnizo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarnizo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Atletico Mineros scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Guarnizo conceded in 48% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Mineros VS Guarnizo
0.67 Goals Scored 1.63
1.83 Goals Conceded 0.5
83% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Mineros

(Home)
03 Oct
Atletico Mineros
0 : 4
UD Samano
27 Sept
Castro
0 : 2
Atletico Mineros
19 Sept
Atletico Mineros
0 : 2
Cayon CD
13 Sept
CD Revilla
4 : 0
Atletico Mineros
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 6

Guarnizo

(Away)
03 Oct
Torina
1 : 1
Guarnizo
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Tropezon 5 5 0 0 11:2 15
2 Bezana 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
3 CD Laredo 5 4 0 1 12:2 12
4 Vimenor 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
5 Cayon CD 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
6 Torina 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
7 UD Samano 5 2 2 1 12:6 8
8 CD Revilla 5 2 2 1 10:6 8
9 Selaya 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
10 Atletico Mineros 5 2 0 3 4:11 6
11 Castro 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
12 UM Escobedo 5 1 2 2 3:7 5
13 Guarnizo 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Solares 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
15 Velarde 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 Atletico Albericia 5 0 1 4 3:9 1
17 Naval Reinosa 5 0 1 4 4:13 1
18 CD Barquereno 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)