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Atletico Paraense vs Gaviao

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Paraense A3 2025
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AI Match Summary

The Paraense A3 2025 game between Atletico Paraense and Gaviao finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Paraense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Atletico Paraense
20%
Draws
47%
Gaviao
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gaviao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico Paraense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Gaviao are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Paraense A3 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Atletico Paraense have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Atletico Paraense Clean Sheet 20%
Gaviao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Paraense Gaviao
Matches Played 13 23
Wins 10 6
Draws 1 7
Losses 2 10
Goals Scored 2.15 1.04
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2025 Paraense A3
Atletico Paraense vs Gaviao
3:1
Nov 14, 2025 Paraense A3
Gaviao vs Atletico Paraense
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 Paraense A3
Atletico Paraense vs Gaviao
3:0
Oct 5, 2025 Paraense A3
Gaviao vs Atletico Paraense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Paraense 24 / 100
Gaviao 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Paraense Gaviao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gaviao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Paraense found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (13 games).

Gaviao has conceded goals in 74% of their last 23 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Atletico Paraense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Paraense VS Gaviao
2.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Paraense

(Home)
23 May
Itupiranga
4 : 1
Atletico Paraense
16 May
Atletico Paraense
0 : 2
Carajas
02 May
Atletico Paraense
1 : 0
Itupiranga
25 Apr
Carajas
0 : 0
Atletico Paraense
25 Nov
Atletico Paraense
1 : 0
Santos PA
Page 1 of 3

Gaviao

(Away)
02 Oct
Gaviao
2 : 0
Belenense
28 Sept
Belenense
1 : 0
Gaviao
20 Sept
Altamira
0 : 1
Gaviao
16 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 2
Parauapebas
11 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 0
Altamira
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Belenense 4 3 0 1 6:3 9
2 Paraense SC 4 2 0 2 7:6 6
3 Pedreira 4 1 0 3 6:10 3
Promotion - Paraense A3 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santos PA 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
2 Venus 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 CA Vila Rica 4 0 1 3 1:9 1
Promotion - Paraense A3 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sport Belem 4 4 0 0 13:4 12
2 Tesla 4 2 0 2 8:7 6
3 Tiradentes PA 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Paraense A3 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paraense 4 4 0 0 8:1 12
2 Gaviao 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
3 Altamira 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - Paraense A3 2025 (Play Offs)