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Atletico San Luis W vs Toluca W

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Libertad Financiera
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atletico San Luis W play Toluca W in the Liga MX Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atletico San Luis W averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Toluca W averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Atletico San Luis W won 1, Toluca W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 5, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Atletico San Luis W and 1.88 for Toluca W. This points to a Toluca W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Atletico San Luis W
22%
Draws
43%
Toluca W
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Toluca W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico San Luis W picked up more points recently compared to Toluca W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Atletico San Luis W Clean Sheet 10%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico San Luis W Toluca W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.43 2.2
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atletico San Luis W
4:0
Oct 12, 2025 Liga MX Women
Atletico San Luis W vs Toluca W
1:1
Mar 9, 2025 Liga MX Women
Atletico San Luis W vs Toluca W
1:0
Nov 1, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atletico San Luis W
4:0
Mar 11, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Atletico San Luis W
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico San Luis W Compare

Top Goalscorer Izquierdo I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Peraza C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico San Luis W 34 / 100
Toluca W 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico San Luis W Toluca W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Toluca W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atletico San Luis W attacking → ← attacking Toluca W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico San Luis W scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Toluca W let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Atletico San Luis W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Toluca W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 52
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tigres UANL W17133160:1142
2Pachuca W17133160:2042
3Club America W17122356:2238
4Toluca W17105235:1735
5Guadalajara Chivas W17103429:1733
6Monterrey W17102538:2432
7Cruz Azul W1784542:2728
8Juarez W1776424:1727
9Club Leon W1783632:3327
10Atletico San Luis W1774624:2725
11UNAM Pumas W1772835:3223
12Atlas W1764728:3322
13Club Tijuana W17431019:3315
14Queretaro W17341017:5013
15Santos Laguna W17331119:4012
16Necaxa W1722139:408
17Puebla W1713138:436
18Mazatlan FC W1702159:582