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Atyrau vs Aktobe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Kereev B.
14'
Zaria G.
28'
Dorofeev K.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Atyrau
15%
Draws
65%
Aktobe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aktobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Aktobe have won more games recently than Atyrau.
  • Win probability leans Aktobe's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 14%
Aktobe Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atyrau Aktobe
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 5 14
Draws 11 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.82 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Aktobe
1:1
May 17, 2026 Premier League
Aktobe vs Atyrau
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Premier League
Aktobe vs Atyrau
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Aktobe
0:4
Sep 29, 2024 Kazakhstan Cup
Atyrau vs Aktobe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atyrau Compare

Top Goalscorer Maksimovic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Aktobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Sosah D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atyrau 23 / 100
Aktobe 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atyrau Aktobe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aktobe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atyrau scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Aktobe conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Atyrau remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atyrau VS Aktobe
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atyrau

(Home)
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0
Atyrau
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2
Okzhetpes
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Aktobe

(Away)
18 Sept
Aktobe
2 : 2
Ulytau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2
Aktobe
05 Sept
Aktobe
1 : 0
Zhenis
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Aktobe
15 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 2
Aktobe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)