Sport Picks

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Atyrau vs Aktobe

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Kereev B.
14'
Zaria G.
28'
Dorofeev K.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Atyrau
30%
Draws
58%
Aktobe
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aktobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Aktobe have won more games recently than Atyrau.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 14%
Aktobe Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atyrau Aktobe
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 4 13
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.81 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Aktobe
1:1
May 17, 2026 Premier League
Aktobe vs Atyrau
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Premier League
Aktobe vs Atyrau
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Aktobe
0:4
Sep 29, 2024 Kazakhstan Cup
Atyrau vs Aktobe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atyrau Compare

Top Goalscorer Maksimovic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Aktobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Sosah D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atyrau 35 / 100
Aktobe 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atyrau Aktobe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aktobe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atyrau scored in 62% of their last 26 outings.

Defensive concern: Aktobe conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Atyrau remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atyrau VS Aktobe
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atyrau

(Home)
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2
Okzhetpes
09 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1
Aktobe
01 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
26 Jul
Tobol
1 : 0
Atyrau
18 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 3
Kairat Almaty
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Aktobe

(Away)
15 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 2
Aktobe
09 Aug
Atyrau
1 : 1
Aktobe
01 Aug
Kyzylzhar
3 : 1
Aktobe
25 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1
Okzhetpes
19 Jul
Altai
2 : 4
Aktobe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 22 16 4 2 43:16 52
2 Kairat Almaty 21 14 6 1 42:15 48
3 FC Astana 21 11 6 4 34:22 39
4 Okzhetpes 22 10 6 6 32:29 36
5 Aktobe 22 10 5 7 32:26 35
6 Yelimay Semey 21 8 8 5 31:26 32
7 Ulytau 22 7 7 8 18:24 28
8 Zhenis 21 6 8 7 21:24 26
9 Tobol 21 7 4 10 23:28 25
10 Kaspij Aktau 22 6 5 11 24:31 23
11 Kyzylzhar 22 6 5 11 24:32 23
12 Atyrau 21 3 11 7 15:21 20
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 21 3 11 7 16:24 20
14 Altai 22 4 7 11 20:33 19
15 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 22 4 7 11 24:38 19
16 Ertis Pavlodar 21 3 8 10 20:30 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)