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Atyrau vs Kaspij Aktau Prediction & H2H Stats

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Atyrau Logo

Atyrau

1 - 2
FT
Kaspij Aktau Logo

Kaspij Aktau

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Ndombasi N.
33'
Noyok O.
37'
Amaral A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kaspij Aktau in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kaspij Aktau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Atyrau
15%
Draws
59%
Kaspij Aktau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaspij Aktau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kaspij Aktau lately — more wins on the board than Atyrau.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 16%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atyrau Kaspij Aktau
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 5 9
Draws 11 5
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 0.82 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kaspij Aktau
1:2
Jun 27, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Atyrau
2:0
Aug 12, 2023 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kaspij Aktau
1:0
May 7, 2023 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Atyrau
1:1
Sep 4, 2022 Premier League
Atyrau vs Kaspij Aktau
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atyrau Compare

Top Goalscorer Khvalko E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Kaspij Aktau Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndombasi N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abylaykhan R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atyrau 31 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atyrau Kaspij Aktau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaspij Aktau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atyrau found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Kaspij Aktau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Atyrau remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atyrau VS Kaspij Aktau
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atyrau

(Home)
17 Sept
Atyrau
0 : 3
Ordabasy
12 Sept
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 0
Atyrau
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
30 Aug
Atyrau
2 : 3
FC Astana
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2
Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6

Kaspij Aktau

(Away)
18 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1
Kaspij Aktau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2
Aktobe
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3
Kairat Almaty
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0
Tobol
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2
Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)