Sport Picks

France

National 2025/2026 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny

Aubagne FC

1 - 0

Bourg Peronnas

Our Tip

Match Events

61'

Bentoumi M.

Assist: Chibani N.

66'

Sub

Do Marcolino A. In: Magassouba M.

Out: Do Marcolino A.

66'

Sub

Slimani R. In: Kembolo F.

Out: Slimani R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Aubagne FC and Bourg Peronnas finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aubagne FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Aubagne FC

30%

Draws

34%

Bourg Peronnas

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aubagne FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Bourg Peronnas come out ahead of Aubagne FC on wins alone.
Aubagne FC are the model's pick here, at 36%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%

Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 20%

Bourg Peronnas Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aubagne FC	Bourg Peronnas
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	8	11
Draws	8	5
Losses	14	15
Goals Scored	0.88	0.5
Goals Conceded	1.75	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Ligue 3

Aubagne FC vs Bourg Peronnas

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Sep 5, 2025 Ligue 3

Bourg Peronnas vs Aubagne FC

Possession: 56% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

Mar 14, 2025 Ligue 3

Aubagne FC vs Bourg Peronnas

Possession: 52% - 43% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Oct 18, 2024 Ligue 3

Bourg Peronnas vs Aubagne FC

Possession: 43% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aubagne FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Bentoumi M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Bourg Peronnas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aubagne FC 36 / 100

Bourg Peronnas 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aubagne FC Bourg Peronnas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aubagne FC found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Bourg Peronnas has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.25 goals when they meet.

Aubagne FC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aubagne FC VS Bourg Peronnas

0.88 Goals Scored 0.5

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38

88% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dijon	32	18	11	3	52:25	65
2	Sochaux	32	16	10	6	51:26	58
3	Rouen	32	14	13	5	43:29	55
4	Fleury-Merogis	32	15	9	8	47:30	54
5	Versailles	32	15	8	9	46:34	53
6	Orleans	32	14	9	9	42:42	51
7	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	12	11	9	45:38	47
8	Caen	32	8	16	8	39:34	40
9	Concarneau	32	8	14	10	32:37	38
10	Valenciennes	32	10	8	14	35:44	37
11	Aubagne FC	32	9	10	13	38:46	37
12	Villefranche	32	10	7	15	34:45	37
13	Quevilly	32	8	9	15	34:45	33
14	Paris 13 Atletico	32	7	11	14	26:41	32
15	Bourg Peronnas	32	8	7	17	25:44	31
16	Chateauroux	32	6	13	13	35:49	30
17	Stade Briochin	32	5	12	15	35:50	27