Sport Picks
Aubagne FC vs Chateauroux
France
National 2025/2026 Stade de Lattre-de-Tassigny, Aubagne 
Match Events
12'
12'
Chahid Y.
Assist: Freitas R.
20'
20'
Sub
Ndiaye O. In: El Asrar M.
Out: Ndiaye O.
33'
33'
El Kaddouri B.
AI Match Summary
The National 2025/2026 game between Aubagne FC and Chateauroux finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
35%
28%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aubagne FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aubagne FC come out ahead of Chateauroux on wins alone.
- 37% — that's where the model lands on Aubagne FC taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Aubagne FC have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Aubagne FC Clean Sheet 68%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 21%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aubagne FC | Chateauroux |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 17 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 3, 2026 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Chateauroux
1:1
Oct 31, 2025 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Aubagne FC
0:3
Apr 25, 2025 Ligue 3
Aubagne FC vs Chateauroux
6:2
Dec 13, 2024 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Aubagne FC
2:7
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aubagne FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Nehari M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Chateauroux Compare
Top Goalscorer Chahid Y.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aubagne FC 50 / 100
Chateauroux 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aubagne FC Chateauroux
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aubagne FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chateauroux let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 5.50 goals as a typical output.
Aubagne FC scored in 67% of their last 30 games.
Aubagne FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Aubagne FC VS Chateauroux
0.75 Goals Scored 0.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 13%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Aubagne FC
(Home) 03 Oct
La Roche Vendee
3 : 1 Aubagne FC
26 Sept
Fleury 91
1 : 2 Aubagne FC
19 Sept
Rouen
1 : 0 Aubagne FC
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2 Concarneau
05 Sept
Paris 13 Atletico
0 : 0 Aubagne FC
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Aubagne FC
1 : 2 Concarneau
29 Aug
Aubagne FC
2 : 0 Bourg Peronnas
14 Aug
Aubagne FC
0 : 1 Bastia
07 Aug
Aubagne FC
0 : 3 Thionville
24 Jul
Aubagne FC
1 : 1 Bastia
Page 1 of 3
Chateauroux
(Away) 02 Oct
Istres
0 : 0 Chateauroux
11 Sept
Chateauroux
0 : 1 Limonest
05 Sept
Touraine
1 : 1 Chateauroux
28 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1 Hyeres
22 Aug
Hauts Lyonnais
0 : 0 Chateauroux
Page 1 of 6
02 Oct
Istres
0 : 0 Chateauroux
05 Sept
Touraine
1 : 1 Chateauroux
22 Aug
Hauts Lyonnais
0 : 0 Chateauroux
15 May
Valenciennes
2 : 2 Chateauroux
30 Apr
Dijon
1 : 2 Chateauroux
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dijon | 32 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 52:25 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochaux | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 51:26 | 58 |
| 3 | Rouen | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 43:29 | 55 |
| 4 | Fleury 91 | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 47:30 | 54 |
| 5 | Versailles | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 46:34 | 53 |
| 6 | Orleans | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 42:42 | 51 |
| 7 | Le Puy-en-Velay | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 45:38 | 47 |
| 8 | Caen | 32 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 39:34 | 40 |
| 9 | Concarneau | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 32:37 | 38 |
| 10 | Valenciennes | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:44 | 37 |
| 11 | Aubagne FC | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 38:46 | 37 |
| 12 | Villefranche | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 34:45 | 37 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:45 | 33 |
| 14 | Paris 13 Atletico | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 26:41 | 32 |
| 15 | Bourg Peronnas | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 25:44 | 31 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 35:49 | 30 |
| 17 | Stade Briochin | 32 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 35:50 | 27 |
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
