Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs Leones del Norte

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Monserrat N.
24' Event
Preciado E.
(Penalty)
31' Event
Bolanos R.
Assist: Preciado E.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Aucas and Leones del Norte finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Aucas
35%
Draws
30%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aucas come out ahead of Leones del Norte on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Aucas here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Aucas Clean Sheet 68%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas Leones del Norte
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.17 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs Leones del Norte
3:0
Apr 17, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Aucas
0:1
Jun 12, 2022 Copa Ecuador
Leones del Norte vs Aucas
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Bolanos R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Leones del Norte Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 41 / 100
Leones del Norte 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas Leones del Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aucas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aucas scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Leones del Norte let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Aucas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS Leones del Norte
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aucas

(Home)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
07 Sept
Aucas
1 : 1
Barcelona SC
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

Leones del Norte

(Away)
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)