Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aucas vs U. Catolica

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Alonso M.
Assist: Rodriguez A.
19' Event
Mena A.
24'
Sevillano M.

AI Match Summary

Aucas in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aucas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Aucas
35%
Draws
34%
U. Catolica
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Aucas have won more games recently than U. Catolica.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Aucas Clean Sheet 17%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aucas U. Catolica
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.24 1.82
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Aucas
1:1
May 9, 2026 Liga Pro
Aucas vs U. Catolica
2:1
Aug 3, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Aucas
6:2
Apr 16, 2025 Liga Pro
Aucas vs U. Catolica
2:1
Mar 7, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
U. Catolica vs Aucas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Mena A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Alonso M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 31 / 100
U. Catolica 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aucas U. Catolica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick U. Catolica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Aucas found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

U. Catolica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Aucas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aucas VS U. Catolica
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aucas

(Home)
07 Sept
Aucas
1 : 1
Barcelona SC
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
26 Aug
LDU Quito
1 : 0
Aucas
23 Aug
Delfin
0 : 1
Aucas
Page 1 of 6

U. Catolica

(Away)
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1
U. Catolica
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
29 Aug
Independiente del Valle
2 : 2
U. Catolica
22 Aug
U. Catolica
5 : 1
Manta
18 Aug
Macara
1 : 1
U. Catolica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 29 23 2 4 70:31 71
2 Aucas 29 14 7 8 33:28 49
3 U. Catolica 29 13 9 7 49:26 48
4 Macara 29 14 6 9 40:33 48
5 LDU Quito 29 13 6 10 30:23 45
6 Barcelona SC 29 11 10 8 31:24 43
7 Libertad 29 11 8 10 31:31 41
8 Leones del Norte 28 10 8 10 30:30 38
9 Mushuc Runa 28 9 10 9 33:34 37
10 Guayaquil City 28 9 9 10 27:31 36
11 Emelec 28 9 9 10 24:33 36
12 Dep. Cuenca 29 10 5 14 24:36 35
13 Orense 28 8 6 14 31:42 30
14 Tecnico U. 29 9 2 18 27:42 29
15 Delfin 29 7 6 16 18:30 27
16 Manta 28 5 5 18 17:41 20
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)