Sport Picks

Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

U. Catolica

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aucas play U. Catolica in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aucas averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. U. Catolica averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Aucas won 2, U. Catolica won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Aucas and 1.44 for U. Catolica. This points to a Aucas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Aucas

21%

Draws

36%

U. Catolica

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Aucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Aucas picked up more points recently compared to U. Catolica.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Aucas Clean Sheet 16%

U. Catolica Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aucas	U. Catolica
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	14	11
Draws	7	10
Losses	7	9
Goals Scored	1.5	1.5
Goals Conceded	0.96	1.17
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Liga Pro

Aucas vs U. Catolica

Possession: 42% - 57% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Aug 3, 2025 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Aucas

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 3 - 1

6:2

Apr 16, 2025 Liga Pro

Aucas vs U. Catolica

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Mar 7, 2025 Copa Sudamericana

U. Catolica vs Aucas

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Nov 9, 2024 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Aucas

Possession: 53% - 44% Cards: 1 - 1

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Mena A.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Alonso M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aucas 42 / 100

U. Catolica 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aucas U. Catolica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aucas or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aucas attacking → ← attacking U. Catolica

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aucas scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

U. Catolica let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Aucas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

U. Catolica lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 43

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	17	13	1	3	36:18	40
2	Barcelona SC	17	8	5	4	20:13	29
3	LDU Quito	16	8	3	5	19:13	27
4	Dep. Cuenca	17	8	3	6	18:19	27
5	U. Catolica	16	7	5	4	26:14	26
6	Aucas	16	7	5	4	19:16	26
7	Orense	16	6	4	6	21:22	22
8	Emelec	16	6	4	6	13:16	22
9	Tecnico U.	16	6	2	8	17:16	20
10	Leones del Norte	17	5	5	7	18:19	20
11	Macara	16	5	5	6	15:18	20
12	Guayaquil City	16	5	4	7	14:19	19
13	Mushuc Runa	16	4	6	6	19:21	18
14	Libertad	17	4	5	8	17:25	17
15	Delfin	16	4	4	8	8:15	16
16	Manta	17	3	3	11	7:23	12