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Auckland City vs Coastal Spirit

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024 Kiwitea Street, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Bevan M.
19' Event
Bevan M.
21' Event
Bevan M.

AI Match Summary

The National League 2024 game between Auckland City and Coastal Spirit finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Auckland City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Auckland City
6%
Draws
4%
Coastal Spirit
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Auckland City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Auckland City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular National League 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 20%
Coastal Spirit Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Coastal Spirit
Matches Played 42 27
Wins 24 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 2 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 6, 2025 National League
Auckland City vs Coastal Spirit
3:0
Nov 24, 2024 National League
Auckland City vs Coastal Spirit
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Bevan M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Manickum D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Coastal Spirit Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 85 / 100
Coastal Spirit 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Coastal Spirit

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City scored in 86% of their last 42 games.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Auckland City has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Coastal Spirit conceded in 70% of 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland City VS Coastal Spirit
2 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland City

(Home)
04 Jul
Auckland City
3 : 0
Takapuna Afc
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
30 Nov
Western Springs
1 : 3
Auckland City
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 9

Coastal Spirit

(Away)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
26 Feb
Coastal Spirit
1 : 5
Nomads United
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
23 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 0
Western Springs
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Birkenhead962123:1620
2Auckland City961220:1019
3Western Springs960325:1618
4Napier City952221:1417
5Wellington Phoenix 2941416:1913
6Wellington Olympic932417:1511
7Coastal Spirit932418:2011
8Cashmere Technical923416:189
9Eastern Suburbs91268:175
10Western Suburbs91179:284
Promotion - National League 2024 (Grand Final)