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Auckland City vs Manurewa

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2023 Kiwitea Street
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auckland City play Manurewa in the National League 2023. Auckland City are favorites here. Recently, Auckland City averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Manurewa averaged 1.58 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland City won 2, Manurewa won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 1, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Auckland City and 1.81 for Manurewa. This points to a Auckland City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Auckland City
15%
Draws
29%
Manurewa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Auckland City picked up more points recently compared to Manurewa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 11%
Manurewa Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Manurewa
Matches Played 32 12
Wins 20 5
Draws 5 1
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.75 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2024 Club Friendly
Auckland City vs Manurewa
2:0
Oct 1, 2023 National League
Auckland City vs Manurewa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer de Vries R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Manurewa Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 53 / 100
Manurewa 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Manurewa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Auckland City & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.5%
2.08
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auckland City attacking → ← attacking Manurewa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Manurewa let in goals in 83% of their last 12 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Auckland City went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Manurewa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 16
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wellington Olympic972034:1523
2Auckland City970219:1221
3Christchurch951318:1616
4Eastern Suburbs943223:1115
5Manurewa941416:2013
6Cashmere Technical941424:2413
7Auckland United924315:1710
8Wellington Phoenix 2930619:249
9Napier City921613:267
10Petone90186:221