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Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024 Kiwitea Street
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Smith J.
32' Event
Brooke-Smith L.
34' Event
Sloane-Rodrigues G.

AI Match Summary

Wellington Phoenix 2 in this National League 2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wellington Phoenix 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Auckland City
6%
Draws
4%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Auckland City have won more games recently than Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • Model gives Auckland City a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 68%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland City Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 5 2
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.63 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2025 National League
Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:0
Nov 10, 2024 National League
Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
3:4
Sep 23, 2023 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Auckland City
0:1
Nov 5, 2022 National League
Auckland City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:0
Feb 20, 2021 Football Championship
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Auckland City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kilkolly A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bevan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brooke-Smith L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland City 95 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland City Wellington Phoenix 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland City found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Wellington Phoenix 2's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Auckland City went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Auckland City VS Wellington Phoenix 2
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Birkenhead962123:1620
2Auckland City961220:1019
3Western Springs960325:1618
4Napier City952221:1417
5Wellington Phoenix 2941416:1913
6Wellington Olympic932417:1511
7Coastal Spirit932418:2011
8Cashmere Technical923416:189
9Eastern Suburbs91268:175
10Western Suburbs91179:284