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Auckland FC 2 vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2025 Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Nabenu S.
16' Event
Gardiner D.
74' Event
Burns A.

AI Match Summary

Auckland FC 2 in this National League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Auckland FC 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Auckland FC 2
15%
Draws
31%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland FC 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Auckland FC 2 lately — more wins on the board than Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • Model gives Auckland FC 2 a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Auckland FC 2 Clean Sheet 20%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC 2 Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 19 11
Draws 5 3
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.87 1.94
Goals Conceded 0.93 2.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 National League
Auckland FC 2 vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nabenu S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Burns A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Gardiner D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 2 49 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC 2 Wellington Phoenix 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland FC 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland FC 2 found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

Wellington Phoenix 2's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Auckland FC 2 has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Auckland FC 2 VS Wellington Phoenix 2
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland FC 2

(Home)
27 Sept
Auckland FC 2
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
24 May
South Melbourne
1 : 2
Auckland FC 2
20 May
Auckland FC 2
1 : 0
South Island United
12 May
Auckland FC 2
5 : 2
South Island United
09 May
Auckland FC 2
2 : 0
Bula
Page 1 of 6

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Away)
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wellington Olympic 10 7 0 3 23:14 21
2 Auckland City 10 6 2 2 19:14 20
3 Miramar 10 6 1 3 25:14 19
4 Auckland FC 2 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
5 Western Springs 10 5 1 4 16:13 16
6 Birkenhead 10 5 0 5 20:21 15
7 Christchurch 10 4 2 4 16:19 14
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 10 3 1 6 18:21 10
9 Western Suburbs 10 3 1 6 19:21 10
10 Auckland United 10 2 2 6 11:19 8
11 Coastal Spirit 10 2 1 7 5:23 7
Promotion - National League 2025 (Grand Final)