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Auckland FC 2 vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Go Media Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Auckland FC 2 play Wellington Phoenix 2 in the National League. Auckland FC 2 are favorites here. Recently, Auckland FC 2 averaged 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. Wellington Phoenix 2 averaged 1.94 goals scored and 2.42 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland FC 2 won 1, Wellington Phoenix 2 won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 4, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.73 for Auckland FC 2 and 0.81 for Wellington Phoenix 2. This points to a Auckland FC 2 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Auckland FC 2
15%
Draws
26%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland FC 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Auckland FC 2 picked up more points recently compared to Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.73 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Auckland FC 2 Clean Sheet 26%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC 2 Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 19 12
Draws 5 2
Losses 5 17
Goals Scored 1.86 1.94
Goals Conceded 0.86 2.42

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 National League
Auckland FC 2 vs Wellington Phoenix 2
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nabenu S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Burns A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Gardiner D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 2 58 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC 2 Wellington Phoenix 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland FC 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Auckland FC 2 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.6%
1.96
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auckland FC 2 attacking → ← attacking Wellington Phoenix 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland FC 2 scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Auckland FC 2 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Phoenix 2 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 38
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237