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Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd

Australia Australia

A-League Go Media Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Brook L.
Assist: Howieson C.
51'
Sub
May G. In: Rogerson L.
Out: May G.
57'
Sub
Howieson C. In: Pijnaker N.
Out: Howieson C.

AI Match Summary

The A-League game between Auckland FC and Adelaide Utd finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Auckland FC
30%
Draws
34%
Adelaide Utd
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Auckland FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Auckland FC come out ahead of Adelaide Utd on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Auckland FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Auckland FC Clean Sheet 15%
Adelaide Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC Adelaide Utd
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 10 8
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC
0:3
May 9, 2026 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
1:1
Apr 3, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Auckland FC
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
2:1
Mar 1, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Adelaide Utd
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Brook L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Adelaide Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Crawford H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 35 / 100
Adelaide Utd 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC Adelaide Utd

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland FC scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Adelaide Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Auckland FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland FC VS Adelaide Utd
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Adelaide Utd-
TBD-
Auckland FC2
Melbourne City1
Newcastle Jets-
TBD-
Melbourne Victory0
Sydney FC1
Semi-finals
Adelaide Utd1
Auckland FC4
Newcastle Jets2
Sydney FC3
Final
Auckland FC1
Sydney FC0