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Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets

Australia Australia

A-League 2025/2026 Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Dobson W.
14' Event
Verstraete L.
Assist: Cosgrove S.
35'
Burgess M.

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Jets in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Jets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Auckland FC
15%
Draws
34%
Newcastle Jets
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Newcastle Jets lately — more wins on the board than Auckland FC.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Auckland FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Auckland FC Clean Sheet 16%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC Newcastle Jets
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 9 4
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.57 2
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Auckland FC
1:2
Jan 1, 2026 A-League
Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets
1:3
Nov 30, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets
1:2
Mar 9, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Auckland FC
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 A-League
Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Verstraete L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Newcastle Jets Compare

Top Goalscorer Dobson W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rose L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 48 / 100
Newcastle Jets 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC Newcastle Jets

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Auckland FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Auckland FC scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Newcastle Jets's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Newcastle Jets registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Auckland FC VS Newcastle Jets
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland FC

(Home)
19 Sept
Auckland FC
1 : 3
Western Sydney Wanderers
26 Aug
Al Ahli SC
1 : 0
Auckland FC
26 Jul
Auckland FC
0 : 2
Tottenham
23 May
Auckland FC
1 : 0
Sydney FC
15 May
Adelaide Utd
0 : 3
Auckland FC
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Newcastle Jets

(Away)
15 Sept
Kashima Antlers
7 : 1
Newcastle Jets
21 Jul
Preston Lions
3 : 2
Newcastle Jets
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2
Sydney FC
09 May
Sydney FC
1 : 1
Newcastle Jets
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0
Central Coast
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Newcastle Jets 26 15 3 8 55:39 48
2 Adelaide Utd 26 12 7 7 46:36 43
3 Auckland FC 26 11 9 6 42:29 42
4 Melbourne Victory 26 11 7 8 44:33 40
5 Sydney FC 26 11 6 9 33:25 39
6 Melbourne City 26 10 8 8 33:33 38
7 Macarthur FC 26 9 7 10 37:44 34
8 Wellington Phoenix 26 9 6 11 36:48 33
9 Central Coast 26 8 8 10 35:42 32
10 Perth Glory 26 8 7 11 32:39 31
11 Brisbane Roar 26 6 8 12 27:36 26
12 Western Sydney Wanderers 26 5 6 15 27:43 21
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)