Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets

Australia Australia

A-League Go Media Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auckland FC play Newcastle Jets in the A-League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Auckland FC averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Newcastle Jets averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland FC won 2, Newcastle Jets won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 14, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Auckland FC and 1.63 for Newcastle Jets. This points to a Newcastle Jets double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Auckland FC
22%
Draws
39%
Newcastle Jets
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Newcastle Jets

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Auckland FC picked up more points recently compared to Newcastle Jets.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72%
Auckland FC Clean Sheet 14%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland FC Newcastle Jets
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 10 4
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.63 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Auckland FC
1:2
Jan 1, 2026 A-League
Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets
1:3
Nov 30, 2025 A-League
Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets
1:2
Mar 9, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Auckland FC
1:1
Nov 30, 2024 A-League
Auckland FC vs Newcastle Jets
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Verstraete L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Newcastle Jets Compare

Top Goalscorer Dobson W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rose L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland FC 38 / 100
Newcastle Jets 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland FC Newcastle Jets

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Newcastle Jets or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auckland FC attacking → ← attacking Newcastle Jets

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland FC scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Newcastle Jets let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Auckland FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Newcastle Jets lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 55
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Newcastle Jets26153855:3948
2Adelaide Utd26127746:3643
3Auckland FC26119642:2942
4Melbourne Victory26117844:3340
5Sydney FC26116933:2539
6Melbourne City26108833:3338
7Macarthur FC26971037:4434
8Wellington Phoenix26961136:4833
9Central Coast26881035:4232
10Perth Glory26871132:3931
11Brisbane Roar26681227:3626
12Western Sydney Wanderers26561527:4321