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Auckland United vs Christchurch

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Keith Hay Park, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Karunaratne N.
70' Event
Karunaratne N.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Auckland United and Christchurch finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Christchurch.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Auckland United
20%
Draws
38%
Christchurch
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Auckland United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Christchurch come out ahead of Auckland United on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Auckland United's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 15%
Christchurch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Christchurch
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Christchurch
0:2
Jul 26, 2025 Chatham Cup
Christchurch vs Auckland United
2:4
Oct 7, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Christchurch
2:2
Oct 15, 2022 National League
Auckland United vs Christchurch
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Christchurch Compare

Top Goalscorer Karunaratne N.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 41 / 100
Christchurch 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Christchurch

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Auckland United's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Christchurch conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Auckland United has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Christchurch
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Auckland United

(Home)
04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1
Cambridge
07 Dec
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0
Auckland United
30 Nov
Auckland United
0 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 0
Auckland United
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
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Christchurch

(Away)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
19 Feb
Nomads United
2 : 1
Christchurch
29 Nov
Christchurch
1 : 4
Auckland FC 2
21 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Christchurch
15 Nov
Christchurch
3 : 1
Western Suburbs
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237
Promotion - National League (Grand Final)