Sport Picks

New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2025

Nelson Suburbs FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Auckland United play Nelson Suburbs FC in the Chatham Cup 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Auckland United averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.74 conceded. Nelson Suburbs FC averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Auckland United won 1, Nelson Suburbs FC won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 16, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Auckland United and 1.88 for Nelson Suburbs FC. This points to a Nelson Suburbs FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Auckland United

17%

Draws

46%

Nelson Suburbs FC

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Nelson Suburbs FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Auckland United picked up more points recently compared to Nelson Suburbs FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 72%

Over 3.5 Goals 43%

Over 4.5 Goals 22%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%

Nelson Suburbs FC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Auckland United	Nelson Suburbs FC
Matches Played	31	4
Wins	13	3
Draws	6	0
Losses	12	1
Goals Scored	1.81	2
Goals Conceded	1.74	1
Expected Goals (xG)	2.63	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2025 Chatham Cup

Auckland United vs Nelson Suburbs FC

Possession: 52% - 60% Cards: 3 - 2

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Top Goalscorer Olaoye D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Conroy M. J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.02

Avg xA / game 1.31

Nelson Suburbs FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 35 / 100

Nelson Suburbs FC 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Auckland United Nelson Suburbs FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nelson Suburbs FC or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.4%

1.52

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auckland United attacking → ← attacking Nelson Suburbs FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auckland United scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Nelson Suburbs FC let in goals in 50% of their last 4 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Auckland United went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Nelson Suburbs FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 9

2.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00