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Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Keith Hay Park
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Bouzoukis G.
19' Event
Gulley J.
40' Event
Prins I.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Auckland United and Wellington Olympic finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wellington Olympic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Auckland United
17%
Draws
70%
Wellington Olympic
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Wellington Olympic come out ahead of Auckland United on wins alone.
  • Model gives Wellington Olympic a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Wellington Olympic have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auckland United Wellington Olympic
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 12 26
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2025 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
0:3
Sep 7, 2025 Chatham Cup
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
2:4
Oct 21, 2023 National League
Auckland United vs Wellington Olympic
1:3
Nov 5, 2022 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auckland United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Wellington Olympic Compare

Top Goalscorer Bouzoukis G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gulley J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auckland United 14 / 100
Wellington Olympic 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auckland United Wellington Olympic

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Wellington Olympic conceded in 85% of 40 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.

Auckland United found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Wellington Olympic has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Auckland United VS Wellington Olympic
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237