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Augsburg vs Mainz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga WWK Arena, Augsburg
Sun, Nov 22, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Augsburg host Mainz in the Bundesliga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Augsburg have averaged 2.34 scored and 1.83 conceded recently, against Mainz's 2.8 scored and 1.33 conceded. Head-to-head, Augsburg have won 0 to Mainz's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 7, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (2.19 - 2.25) back Mainz to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Augsburg
20%
Draws
30%
Mainz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Augsburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Augsburg haven't matched Mainz's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Augsburg taking it.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Mainz here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Augsburg Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Augsburg Mainz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 18
Draws 8 3
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 2.34 2.8
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Augsburg
2:0
Sep 20, 2025 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Mainz
1:4
Feb 8, 2025 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Augsburg
0:0
Sep 20, 2024 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Mainz
2:3
Feb 17, 2024 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Augsburg
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Augsburg 74 / 100
Mainz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Augsburg Mainz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Augsburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Augsburg found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Augsburg remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Mainz's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Augsburg VS Mainz
2.5 Goals Scored 2.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Augsburg

(Home)
31 Oct
Augsburg
1 : 2
Freiburg
27 Oct
Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2 : 4
Augsburg
24 Oct
Augsburg
1 : 1
Union Berlin
17 Oct
Elversberg
4 : 3
Augsburg
10 Oct
Augsburg
2 : 2
Bayern Munich
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Mainz

(Away)
30 Oct
Elversberg
4 : 1
Mainz
27 Oct
Bochum
2 : 0
Mainz
24 Oct
Mainz
2 : 3
Werder Bremen
17 Oct
Schalke
0 : 1
Mainz
10 Oct
Mainz
3 : 4
Bayer Leverkusen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 8 5 3 0 27:8 18
2 Dortmund 8 5 3 0 14:6 18
3 Freiburg 8 5 1 2 18:10 16
4 RB Leipzig 8 5 0 3 22:11 15
5 Werder Bremen 8 4 3 1 17:14 15
6 Bayer Leverkusen 8 4 1 3 18:16 13
7 Elversberg 8 4 1 3 16:16 13
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 3 2 3 13:18 11
9 Mainz 8 3 1 4 17:17 10
10 Augsburg 8 2 3 3 18:15 9
11 VfB Stuttgart 8 3 0 5 14:15 9
12 Hoffenheim 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
13 1. FC Koln 8 2 3 3 9:12 9
14 Paderborn 8 2 3 3 6:9 9
15 Hamburger 8 3 0 5 7:19 9
16 Union Berlin 8 1 4 3 7:19 7
17 Schalke 8 1 3 4 4:9 6
18 B. Monchengladbach 8 1 1 6 11:22 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)