Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aurrera de Vitoria vs Anorga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Gastaminza H.
80' Event
Yarza P.
Own Goal
86' Event
Hernandez I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Aurrera de Vitoria and Anorga finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aurrera de Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Aurrera de Vitoria
20%
Draws
28%
Anorga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aurrera de Vitoria come out ahead of Anorga on wins alone.
  • Aurrera de Vitoria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%
Anorga Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurrera de Vitoria Anorga
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.26 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Anorga
3:0
Oct 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Aurrera de Vitoria
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Gastaminza H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Anorga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera de Vitoria 95 / 100
Anorga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurrera de Vitoria Anorga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aurrera de Vitoria went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Aurrera de Vitoria scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Anorga conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Aurrera de Vitoria VS Anorga
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurrera de Vitoria

(Home)
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1
Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2
Aurrera de Vitoria
29 Aug
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 0
Amorebieta
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Deusto
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2
Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 7

Anorga

(Away)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)