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Aurrera de Vitoria vs Pasaia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Aurrera de Vitoria Logo

Aurrera de Vitoria

3 - 1
FT
Pasaia Logo

Pasaia

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Zubillaga A.
25' Event
Diaz Hortelano N.
28' Event
Zabaleta I.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aurrera de Vitoria in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aurrera de Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Aurrera de Vitoria
20%
Draws
35%
Pasaia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Pasaia haven't matched Aurrera de Vitoria's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Aurrera de Vitoria's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurrera de Vitoria Pasaia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Pasaia
3:1
Sep 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Aurrera de Vitoria
0:1
Feb 4, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:1
Oct 1, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Pasaia
1:3
May 7, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Pasaia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz Hortelano N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tomas Carrasco A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Pasaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Zubillaga A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera de Vitoria 77 / 100
Pasaia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurrera de Vitoria Pasaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Aurrera de Vitoria remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Aurrera de Vitoria found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Pasaia let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Aurrera de Vitoria VS Pasaia
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurrera de Vitoria

(Home)
03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Erandio
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3
Aurrera de Vitoria
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1
Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2
Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 6

Pasaia

(Away)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)