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Stadium Background

Aurrera de Vitoria vs Portugalete

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Aranburu I.
51' Event
Diaz Hortelano N.
76' Event
Aranburu I.

AI Match Summary

Portugalete in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portugalete.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Aurrera de Vitoria
30%
Draws
34%
Portugalete
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Portugalete have won more games recently than Aurrera de Vitoria.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Aurrera de Vitoria taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 16%
Portugalete Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurrera de Vitoria Portugalete
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 21
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:2
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Portugalete
1:2
Feb 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Portugalete
0:0
Oct 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria
2:1
Apr 15, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Aurrera de Vitoria
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz Hortelano N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Aranburu I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera de Vitoria 36 / 100
Portugalete 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurrera de Vitoria Portugalete

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Aurrera de Vitoria's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Aurrera de Vitoria went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Portugalete let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aurrera de Vitoria VS Portugalete
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugalete34246470:2978
2Leioa34187950:3461
3Derio341771054:4058
4Lagun Onak341761154:3457
5Touring KE34169947:3557
6Real Sociedad C341741348:3955
7San Ignacio341671137:2755
8Aurrera de Vitoria341661242:4154
9Alaves C341581157:4053
10UD Aretxabaleta341361556:6145
11SCD Durango3411111235:3644
12Santurtzi349121332:4539
13Eibar C34991644:5336
14Pasaia34991626:4636
15Anorga341141937:5934
16Zamudio34961942:5933
17Zarautz KE34862030:6030
18SD Deusto34672126:4925