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Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Erandio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Perez J.
69' Event
Martinez M.
89'
Ramos M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between Aurrera de Vitoria and SD Erandio finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aurrera de Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Aurrera de Vitoria
15%
Draws
27%
SD Erandio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aurrera de Vitoria come out ahead of SD Erandio on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aurrera de Vitoria a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Aurrera de Vitoria have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 20%
SD Erandio Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aurrera de Vitoria SD Erandio
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.32 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.05 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Erandio
2:1
May 1, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Erandio vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:0
Dec 14, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs SD Erandio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aurrera de Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.81
Avg xA / game 0.53

SD Erandio Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aurrera de Vitoria 67 / 100
SD Erandio 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aurrera de Vitoria SD Erandio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Aurrera de Vitoria remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Aurrera de Vitoria scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: SD Erandio conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Scoring Trends

Aurrera de Vitoria VS SD Erandio
1.25 Goals Scored 0.86
1 Goals Conceded 0.86
88% Over 1.5 57%
38% Over 2.5 29%
0% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Aurrera de Vitoria

(Home)
03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Erandio
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3
Aurrera de Vitoria
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1
Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2
Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 7

SD Erandio

(Away)
03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Erandio
26 Sept
SD Erandio
2 : 0
Amurrio Club
19 Sept
Eibar C
3 : 1
SD Erandio
12 Sept
SD Erandio
0 : 1
Real Union B
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)