Sport Picks
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Zarautz KE
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 
Match Events
30'
30'
Alfageme U.
60'
60'
Sanchez A.
77'
77'
Alfageme U.
AI Match Summary
Zarautz KE in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Zarautz KE.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
20%
19%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Aurrera de Vitoria have won more games recently than Zarautz KE.
- Aurrera de Vitoria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%
Zarautz KE Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aurrera de Vitoria | Zarautz KE |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.28 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Zarautz KE
1:3
Nov 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zarautz KE vs Aurrera de Vitoria
0:2
Mar 5, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Zarautz KE
1:2
Oct 23, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zarautz KE vs Aurrera de Vitoria
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aurrera de Vitoria Compare
Top Goalscorer Sanchez A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64
Zarautz KE Compare
Top Goalscorer Alfageme U.
3 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aurrera de Vitoria 95 / 100
Zarautz KE 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aurrera de Vitoria Zarautz KE
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Aurrera de Vitoria stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Aurrera de Vitoria scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Zarautz KE let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Aurrera de Vitoria VS Zarautz KE
1.13 Goals Scored 1.14
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.43
88% Over 1.5 57%
38% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 43%
Recent Form & Match History
Aurrera de Vitoria
(Home) 03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 SD Erandio
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3 Aurrera de Vitoria
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1 Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 SD Erandio
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1 Touring KE
29 Aug
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 0 Amorebieta
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 SD Deusto
Page 1 of 4
Zarautz KE
(Away) 09 May
Zarautz KE
0 : 1 Derio
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2 Zarautz KE
25 Apr
Touring KE
2 : 2 Zarautz KE
19 Apr
Zarautz KE
0 : 1 Santurtzi
11 Apr
Alaves C
5 : 1 Zarautz KE
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2 Zarautz KE
25 Apr
Touring KE
2 : 2 Zarautz KE
11 Apr
Alaves C
5 : 1 Zarautz KE
28 Mar
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 3 Zarautz KE
14 Mar
Leioa
3 : 1 Zarautz KE
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 70:29 | 78 |
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50:34 | 61 |
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 54:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Touring KE | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad C | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48:39 | 55 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37:27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 42:41 | 54 |
| 9 | Alaves C | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57:40 | 53 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56:61 | 45 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35:36 | 44 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32:45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44:53 | 36 |
| 14 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Anorga | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37:59 | 34 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 42:59 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30:60 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26:49 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
