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Australia vs New Zealand

World World

Friendly International 2025 GIO Stadium, Canberra
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
De Vries F.
46'
Sub
Silvera S. In: Miller L.
Out: Silvera S.
46'
Sub
Yazbek P. In: O'Neill A.
Out: Yazbek P.

AI Match Summary

Australia in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Australia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Australia
30%
Draws
54%
New Zealand
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: New Zealand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Australia have won more games recently than New Zealand.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Australia here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Australia Clean Sheet 20%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Australia New Zealand
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.63 2.17
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
New Zealand vs Australia
1:3
Sep 5, 2025 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
1:0
Oct 17, 2023 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
2:0
Sep 25, 2022 Friendly International
New Zealand vs Australia
0:2
Sep 22, 2022 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Balard M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

New Zealand Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Australia 32 / 100
New Zealand 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Australia New Zealand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Australia scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

New Zealand has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Australia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Australia VS New Zealand
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Australia

(Home)
29 Sept
Australia
2 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
Australia
1 : 1
Brazil
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
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New Zealand

(Away)
05 Oct
Japan
2 : 1
New Zealand
01 Oct
Panama
1 : 2
New Zealand
27 Sept
China
0 : 3
New Zealand
24 Sept
Palestine
2 : 2
New Zealand
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
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