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Australia vs New Zealand

World World

Friendly International 2025 GIO Stadium
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Match Events

32'
De Vries F.
46'
Sub
Silvera S. In: Miller L.
Out: Silvera S.
46'
Sub
Yazbek P. In: O'Neill A.
Out: Yazbek P.

AI Match Summary

Australia in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Australia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Australia
11%
Draws
9%
New Zealand
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Australia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Australia have won more games recently than New Zealand.
  • Model gives Australia a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Australia here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Australia Clean Sheet 68%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Australia New Zealand
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 6 3
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
New Zealand vs Australia
1:3
Sep 5, 2025 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
1:0
Oct 17, 2023 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
2:0
Sep 25, 2022 Friendly International
New Zealand vs Australia
0:2
Sep 22, 2022 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Balard M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

New Zealand Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Australia 86 / 100
New Zealand 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Australia New Zealand

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Australia scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

New Zealand has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Australia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Australia VS New Zealand
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%