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Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Austria Austria

Bundesliga Generali Arena, Vienna
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Austria Vienna host Sturm Graz in the Bundesliga. This one's hard to separate. Austria Vienna have averaged 1.63 scored and 1.47 conceded recently, against Sturm Graz's 1.94 scored and 1.03 conceded. Past meetings favor Austria Vienna slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 26, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.25) point toward Sturm Graz. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Austria Vienna
20%
Draws
40%
Sturm Graz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Sturm Graz have won more games recently than Austria Vienna.
  • Model gives Austria Vienna a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Austria Vienna Clean Sheet 19%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Austria Vienna Sturm Graz
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 16
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.63 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Bundesliga
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
2:5
Dec 14, 2025 Bundesliga
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
3:1
Sep 14, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Austria Vienna 58 / 100
Sturm Graz 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Austria Vienna Sturm Graz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Austria Vienna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Austria Vienna scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Sturm Graz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Austria Vienna has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Austria Vienna VS Sturm Graz
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Austria Vienna

(Home)
19 Sept
Grazer AK
2 : 2
Austria Vienna
13 Sept
Austria Vienna
2 : 1
A. Lustenau
05 Sept
Traiskirchen
0 : 6
Austria Vienna
02 Sept
Austria Vienna
0 : 1
Tirol
30 Aug
Salzburg
4 : 1
Austria Vienna
Page 1 of 6

Sturm Graz

(Away)
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
30 Aug
Rapid Vienna
3 : 1
Sturm Graz
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 21:7 18
2 Salzburg 7 5 2 0 18:4 17
3 LASK Linz 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 11:12 8
6 Hartberg 7 2 2 3 10:13 8
7 Tirol 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
8 A. Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 6:16 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7:13 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 7:13 5
12 Altach 7 1 0 6 5:12 3
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation Group)