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Auxerre II vs Creteil

France France

National 2 - Group D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Auxerre II averaging 0.9 xG at home and Creteil producing 1.1 xG on their travels. Creteil will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Auxerre II to find a way to break them down. The stats favor a low-scoring affair. Backing Under 2.5 goals looks like the smart play here. The numbers suggest backing Creteil has the better value, giving them a 48% chance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Auxerre II
21%
Draws
48%
Creteil
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Creteil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Auxerre II picked up more points recently compared to Creteil.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.05 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Auxerre II Clean Sheet 22%
Creteil Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre II Creteil
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

10.02.24 National 2 - Group D
Auxerre II vs Creteil
0:2
02.09.23 National 2 - Group D
Creteil vs Auxerre II
2:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Auxerre II

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Creteil

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Auxerre II Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
6 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
4 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.57

Creteil Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
8 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.76

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Creteil • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Auxerre II • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Creteil • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Auxerre II • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre II 32 / 100
Creteil 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre II Creteil

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Creteil or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Auxerre II will likely press early to force mistakes.

Auxerre II 59%
Creteil 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Creteil should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Auxerre II 54%
Creteil 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Auxerre II 51%
Creteil 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Auxerre II to push more players wide.

Auxerre II 56%
Creteil 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Auxerre II 51%
Creteil 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Auxerre II 62%
Creteil 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Auxerre II attacking → ← attacking Creteil

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Auxerre II have scored in 87% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Creteil concede most goals (47%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 21 shots per game, well above the league median.

Auxerre II are unbeaten in 5 straight matches when scoring first.

Creteil have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 6 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Auxerre II wants a European spot, while Creteil is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 49
0.92 Goals expected (xG) 1.05
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2