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Auxerre vs Chateauroux

World World

Club Friendly
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Auxerre host Chateauroux in the Club Friendly. This one's hard to separate. Chateauroux have shipped 1.88 goals a game lately, while Auxerre have conceded 1.13 and scored 2. Past meetings favor Auxerre slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 21, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.94 vs 1.13, favoring Auxerre. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Auxerre
20%
Draws
33%
Chateauroux
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Auxerre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Auxerre have won more games recently than Chateauroux.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Auxerre Clean Sheet 20%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Auxerre Chateauroux
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 7 6
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 2 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Auxerre vs Chateauroux
0:0
Jan 16, 2021 Ligue 2
Auxerre vs Chateauroux
4:1
Aug 29, 2020 Ligue 2
Chateauroux vs Auxerre
1:2
Apr 3, 2020 Ligue 2
Auxerre vs Chateauroux
0:0
Nov 1, 2019 Ligue 2
Chateauroux vs Auxerre
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Auxerre 31 / 100
Chateauroux 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Auxerre Chateauroux

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AUX Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chateauroux conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Auxerre has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Auxerre scored in 59% of their last 27 games.

Scoring Trends

Auxerre VS Chateauroux
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Auxerre

(Home)
01 Aug
Sochaux
1 : 1
Auxerre
25 Jul
Auxerre
1 : 2
Orleans
18 Jul
Auxerre
5 : 2
St. Maur Lusitanos
17 May
Lille
0 : 2
Auxerre
10 May
Auxerre
2 : 1
Nice
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Chateauroux

(Away)
01 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Bourges
15 May
Valenciennes
2 : 2
Chateauroux
09 May
Chateauroux
2 : 1
Sochaux
30 Apr
Dijon
1 : 2
Chateauroux
24 Apr
Chateauroux
0 : 2
Fleury-Merogis
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