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Avellino vs Bari

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Patierno C.
28'
Mane M.
46'
Sub
Mane M. In: De Pieri G.
Out: Mane M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Avellino and Bari finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Avellino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Avellino
20%
Draws
47%
Bari
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Avellino's 2.17 goals per match outpaces what Bari have produced (1.1).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Avellino Clean Sheet 14%
Bari Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avellino Bari
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 2.17 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Bari
2:0
Dec 27, 2025 Serie B
Bari vs Avellino
1:1
Apr 10, 2022 Serie C - Group C
Bari vs Avellino
1:0
Dec 6, 2021 Serie C - Group C
Avellino vs Bari
1:1
Apr 10, 2021 Serie C - Group C
Avellino vs Bari
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avellino Compare

Top Goalscorer Besaggio M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palumbo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Bari Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avellino 31 / 100
Bari 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avellino Bari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avellino's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Bari's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Avellino has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avellino VS Bari
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Avellino

(Home)
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
29 Aug
Avellino
3 : 0
Vicenza
22 Aug
Avellino
1 : 2
Arezzo
14 Aug
Monza
3 : 0
Avellino
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Bari

(Away)
15 Sept
Bari
0 : 0
Potenza
11 Sept
Altamura
0 : 3
Bari
05 Sept
Bari
1 : 0
Casarano
01 Sept
Bari
2 : 1
Picerno
28 Aug
Barletta
3 : 0
Bari
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)