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Avellino vs Sudtirol

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Our Tip

Match Events

1'
Bordon F.
24' Event
Patierno C.
Assist: Biasci T.
32'
Adamonis M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Avellino and Sudtirol finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Avellino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Avellino
30%
Draws
37%
Sudtirol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sudtirol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Avellino carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Sudtirol taking it.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Avellino have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Avellino Clean Sheet 10%
Sudtirol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avellino Sudtirol
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 4 12
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 2.17 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Sudtirol
3:2
Nov 29, 2025 Serie B
Sudtirol vs Avellino
0:1
Jun 2, 2021 Serie C - Group A
Sudtirol vs Avellino
1:0
May 30, 2021 Serie C - Group A
Avellino vs Sudtirol
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avellino Compare

Top Goalscorer Patierno C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Besaggio M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sudtirol Compare

Top Goalscorer Pecorino E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avellino 22 / 100
Sudtirol 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avellino Sudtirol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sudtirol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avellino found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Sudtirol conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Avellino remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Avellino VS Sudtirol
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avellino

(Home)
19 Sept
Ascoli
3 : 1
Avellino
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
29 Aug
Avellino
3 : 0
Vicenza
22 Aug
Avellino
1 : 2
Arezzo
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Sudtirol

(Away)
20 Sept
Arezzo
1 : 4
Sudtirol
15 Sept
Genoa
1 : 0
Sudtirol
12 Sept
Sudtirol
1 : 1
Modena
05 Sept
Sudtirol
2 : 0
Catanzaro
30 Aug
Benevento
1 : 1
Sudtirol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)