Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avispa Fukuoka vs Chiba

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Ishikawa D.
17'
Nago S.
33'
Toriumi K.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this J1 League 2026 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Avispa Fukuoka
20%
Draws
51%
Chiba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chiba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Avispa Fukuoka have won more games recently than Chiba.
  • Model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Avispa Fukuoka have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avispa Fukuoka, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 17%
Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avispa Fukuoka Chiba
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 11 6
Draws 2 2
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 1.37 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
1:2
May 30, 2026 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Chiba
2:2
Oct 25, 2020 J2 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Chiba
1:0
Sep 2, 2020 J2 League
Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
2:2
Jul 20, 2019 J2 League
Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avispa Fukuoka Compare

Top Goalscorer Usui S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hashimoto Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Ishikawa D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Goya H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avispa Fukuoka 41 / 100
Chiba 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avispa Fukuoka Chiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Avispa Fukuoka's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Avispa Fukuoka has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avispa Fukuoka VS Chiba
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avispa Fukuoka

(Home)
29 Sept
FC Osaka
1 : 2
Avispa Fukuoka
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0
Avispa Fukuoka
05 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
1 : 1
Mito
02 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 3
Urawa Reds
Page 1 of 6

Chiba

(Away)
29 Sept
Iwata
4 : 2
Chiba
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
13 Sept
Verdy
1 : 1
Chiba
09 Sept
Kamatamare Sanuki
0 : 2
Chiba
06 Sept
Chiba
2 : 0
Gamba Osaka
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

3rd place
Cerezo Osaka 5
FC Tokyo 3
Nagoya Grampus 3
Machida Zelvia 4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3
Kawasaki Frontale 1
Gamba Osaka 5
Verdy 3
Okayama 3
Urawa Reds 1
Shimizu S-Pulse 1
Yokohama F. Marinos 4
Kyoto 3
Kashiwa Reysol 6
V-Varen Nagasaki 2
Mito 0
Avispa Fukuoka 4
Chiba 3