Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Avispa Fukuoka vs Chiba

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Ishikawa D.
17'
Nago S.
33'
Toriumi K.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this J1 League 2026 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Avispa Fukuoka
28%
Draws
22%
Chiba
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Avispa Fukuoka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Avispa Fukuoka have won more games recently than Chiba.
  • Model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Avispa Fukuoka have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avispa Fukuoka, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 68%
Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Avispa Fukuoka Chiba
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 4 3
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
1:2
May 30, 2026 J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Chiba
2:2
Oct 25, 2020 J2 League
Avispa Fukuoka vs Chiba
1:0
Sep 2, 2020 J2 League
Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
2:2
Jul 20, 2019 J2 League
Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avispa Fukuoka Compare

Top Goalscorer Usui S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hashimoto Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Ishikawa D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Goya H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avispa Fukuoka 59 / 100
Chiba 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Avispa Fukuoka Chiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FUK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Avispa Fukuoka's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Avispa Fukuoka has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Avispa Fukuoka VS Chiba
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avispa Fukuoka

(Home)
19 Jul
Avispa Fukuoka
3 : 2
FC Osaka
11 Jul
Avispa Fukuoka
1 : 2
Giravanz Kitakyushu
06 Jun
Chiba
1 : 2
Avispa Fukuoka
30 May
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 2
Chiba
23 May
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1
Vissel Kobe
Page 1 of 6

Chiba

(Away)
06 Jun
Chiba
1 : 2
Avispa Fukuoka
30 May
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 2
Chiba
23 May
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2
Chiba
17 May
Chiba
0 : 2
Kashima Antlers
10 May
Chiba
0 : 2
Machida Zelvia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

3rd place
Cerezo Osaka5
FC Tokyo3
Nagoya Grampus3
Machida Zelvia4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima3
Kawasaki Frontale1
Gamba Osaka5
Verdy3
Okayama3
Urawa Reds1
Shimizu S-Pulse1
Yokohama F. Marinos4
Kyoto3
Kashiwa Reysol6
V-Varen Nagasaki2
Mito0
Avispa Fukuoka4
Chiba3