Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka

1 - 0

V-Varen Nagasaki

Our Tip

Match Events

Arai I.

46'

Sub

Sawada T. In: Kasayanagi T.

Out: Sawada T.

53'

Shindo R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The J1 League 2026 game between Avispa Fukuoka and V-Varen Nagasaki finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Avispa Fukuoka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Avispa Fukuoka

20%

Draws

38%

V-Varen Nagasaki

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Avispa Fukuoka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Avispa Fukuoka haven't matched V-Varen Nagasaki's recent run of results.
Avispa Fukuoka are the model's pick here, at 42%.
Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 20%

V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Avispa Fukuoka	V-Varen Nagasaki
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	14
Draws	4	2
Losses	13	14
Goals Scored	1.5	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.63	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 J1 League

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

1:0

Mar 15, 2026 J1 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka

1:0

Jul 13, 2022 Emperors Cup

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

2:0

Sep 27, 2020 J2 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka

1:3

Jul 4, 2020 J2 League

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Avispa Fukuoka Compare

Top Goalscorer Miki T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

V-Varen Nagasaki Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Avispa Fukuoka 42 / 100

V-Varen Nagasaki 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Avispa Fukuoka V-Varen Nagasaki

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

V-Varen Nagasaki's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Avispa Fukuoka scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Avispa Fukuoka stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Avispa Fukuoka VS V-Varen Nagasaki

1.5 Goals Scored 1.5

1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5

88% Over 1.5 75%

88% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Avispa Fukuoka

(Home)

19 Jul

Avispa Fukuoka

3 : 2

FC Osaka

11 Jul

Avispa Fukuoka

1 : 2

Giravanz Kitakyushu

06 Jun

Chiba

1 : 2

Avispa Fukuoka

30 May

Avispa Fukuoka

2 : 2

Chiba

23 May

Avispa Fukuoka

0 : 1

Vissel Kobe

Page 1 of 6

V-Varen Nagasaki

(Away)

17 Jul

Utrecht

3 : 2

V-Varen Nagasaki

14 Jul

Nijmegen

3 : 1

V-Varen Nagasaki

06 Jun

Mito

0 : 1

V-Varen Nagasaki

30 May

V-Varen Nagasaki

1 : 0

Mito

23 May

Kyoto

1 : 0

V-Varen Nagasaki

Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

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League Standings (Group 2)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21

Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)

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