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Ayacucho vs Union Comercio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 2
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ayacucho host Union Comercio in the Liga 2. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Ayacucho at 1.21 goals for, 1.43 against; Union Comercio at 1.32 for, 0.74 against. Past meetings favor Ayacucho slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 13, 2022, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.38, favoring Union Comercio. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Ayacucho
15%
Draws
46%
Union Comercio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Union Comercio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Union Comercio have won more games recently than Ayacucho.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Ayacucho taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Ayacucho Clean Sheet 17%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayacucho Union Comercio
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 9 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.21 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 13, 2022 Liga 1
Ayacucho vs Union Comercio
2:1
Nov 6, 2022 Liga 1
Union Comercio vs Ayacucho
3:0
Oct 19, 2019 Liga 1
Ayacucho vs Union Comercio
1:1
May 4, 2019 Liga 1
Union Comercio vs Ayacucho
0:1
Oct 4, 2018 Liga 1
Union Comercio vs Ayacucho
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayacucho 41 / 100
Union Comercio 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayacucho Union Comercio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ayacucho scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Union Comercio let in goals in 45% of their last 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Ayacucho stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ayacucho VS Union Comercio
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayacucho

(Home)
06 Oct
Pirata
2 : 0
Ayacucho
26 Sept
Ayacucho
1 : 0
Union Minas
12 Sept
Ayacucho
0 : 2
Sport Huancayo 2
04 Sept
Comerciantes FC
5 : 1
Ayacucho
22 Aug
Ayacucho
7 : 1
Binacional
Page 1 of 6

Union Comercio

(Away)
06 Oct
Union Minas
4 : 1
Union Comercio
27 Sept
Union Comercio
2 : 0
Pirata
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0
U. San Martin
30 Aug
Llacuabamba
1 : 1
Union Comercio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Comercio 2 1 0 1 3:4 5
2 Union Minas 2 1 0 1 4:2 4
3 Pirata 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
4 Ayacucho 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llacuabamba 2 1 1 0 4:0 5
2 ADA Jaen 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
3 Sport Huancayo 2 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Comerciantes FC 2 0 0 2 0:5 2
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carlos Mannucci 2 1 1 0 7:0 6
2 Tacna Heroica 2 0 2 0 2:2 3
3 U. San Martin 2 1 0 1 2:8 3
4 Alianza Huanuco 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams