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Dumbarton

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ayr play Dumbarton in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ayr averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Dumbarton averaged 1.16 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Ayr won 3, Dumbarton won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 30, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Ayr and 0.94 for Dumbarton. This points to a Ayr double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Ayr

27%

Draws

30%

Dumbarton

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Ayr picked up more points recently compared to Dumbarton.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 86%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Ayr Clean Sheet 24%

Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ayr	Dumbarton
Matches Played	28	31
Wins	9	8
Draws	6	7
Losses	13	16
Goals Scored	1.32	1.16
Goals Conceded	1.5	2
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2026 Club Friendly

Ayr vs Dumbarton

Possession: 50% - 43% Cards: 0 - 1

3:0

Jun 23, 2022 Club Friendly

Ayr vs Dumbarton

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Jul 18, 2017 League Cup

Dumbarton vs Ayr

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 1 - 2

1:3

Mar 25, 2017 Championship

Ayr vs Dumbarton

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Feb 18, 2017 Championship

Dumbarton vs Ayr

Possession: 50% - 48% Cards: 2 - 4

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer McBeth L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader McKenzie M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Dumbarton Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 44 / 100

Dumbarton 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ayr Dumbarton

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ayr or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ayr attacking → ← attacking Dumbarton

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ayr scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Dumbarton let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ayr went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dumbarton lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 31

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13