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Ayr vs Inverness - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup 2025/2026 Somerset Park, Ayr
Ayr Logo

Ayr

1 - 2
FT
Inverness Logo

Inverness

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Alonge J.
Assist: Longstaff L.
34' Event
Finney G.
Assist: McKenzie M.
46'
Sub
Bonnar J. In: Dick L.
Out: Bonnar J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Inverness advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Ayr
15%
Draws
46%
Inverness
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Inverness

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Inverness come out ahead of Ayr on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Inverness arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Inverness, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Inverness here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Ayr Clean Sheet 16%
Inverness Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Inverness
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 5
Goals Scored 1.29 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Inverness
1:3
Feb 24, 2026 Challenge Cup
Ayr vs Inverness
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 Championship
Inverness vs Ayr
1:2
Jan 6, 2024 Championship
Ayr vs Inverness
1:3
Nov 11, 2023 Championship
Inverness vs Ayr
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer Finney G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Inverness Compare

Top Goalscorer Alonge J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 31 / 100
Inverness 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Inverness

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Ayr scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Inverness conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Ayr stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Inverness
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Partick
1 : 0
Ayr
Page 1 of 6

Inverness

(Away)
25 Sept
Inverness
2 : 0
Morton
19 Sept
Livingston
2 : 2
Inverness
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Inverness
0 : 2
Raith
29 Aug
Stenhousemuir
3 : 1
Inverness
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Arbroath 3
Kelty Hearts 2
Elgin City 2
East Fife 3
Alloa 2
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 2
Spartans 1
Queen's Park 2
Clyde 1
Forfar Athletic 2
Edinburgh City 1
Raith 5
Hamilton 2
Queen of the South 4
Dunfermline 3
Hearts B 0
St Johnstone 1
Ross County 4
Celtic B 0
Ayr 2
Peterhead 1
East Kilbride 1
Stranraer 4
Cove Rangers 1
Partick 2
Dumbarton 0
Inverness 9
Stirling 3
Morton 2
Stenhousemuir 2
Annan 0
1/8-finals
Arbroath 3
East Fife 0
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 1
Queen's Park 2
Forfar Athletic 0
Raith 1
Queen of the South 0
St Johnstone 2
Ross County 0
Ayr 4
Stranraer 1
Partick 3
Inverness 4
Stirling 1
Stenhousemuir 2
Quarter-finals
Arbroath 2
Airdrieonians 3
Queen's Park 1
Raith 2
St Johnstone 3
Ayr 4
Inverness 1
Stenhousemuir 0
Semi-finals
Airdrieonians 1
Raith 2
Ayr 1
Inverness 2
Final
Raith 4
Inverness 1