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Ayr vs Inverness - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup Somerset Park, Ayr
Tue, Nov 24, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Inverness have shipped 1.18 goals a game lately, while Ayr have conceded 1.11 and scored 1.44. Past meetings favor Inverness slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 12, 2026, ending 1:3. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.50) point toward Inverness. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Ayr
15%
Draws
40%
Inverness
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ayr

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Inverness carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Inverness arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Inverness, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Inverness have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Ayr Clean Sheet 16%
Inverness Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Inverness
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 13 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.44 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Inverness
1:3
Feb 24, 2026 Challenge Cup
Ayr vs Inverness
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 Championship
Inverness vs Ayr
1:2
Jan 6, 2024 Championship
Ayr vs Inverness
1:3
Nov 11, 2023 Championship
Inverness vs Ayr
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 30 / 100
Inverness 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Inverness

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ayr Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Ayr's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Ayr went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Inverness has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Inverness
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
03 Nov
Annan
0 : 2
Ayr
31 Oct
Ayr
3 : 2
Queen's Park
16 Oct
Ayr
0 : 1
Partick
10 Oct
Ayr
1 : 1
Dunfermline
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
Page 1 of 6

Inverness

(Away)
03 Nov
Inverness
1 : 0
Montrose
31 Oct
Dunfermline
5 : 1
Inverness
24 Oct
Raith
0 : 2
Inverness
17 Oct
Inverness
2 : 0
Arbroath
13 Oct
Queen's Park
2 : 1
Inverness
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Spartans 0
Livingston 2
St. Mirren B 1
Peterhead 2
Hamilton 2
Raith 1
Formartine Utd 0
Cove Rangers 2
East Kilbride 7
Stirling 3
Edinburgh City 0
Partick 3
Bonnyrigg Rose 2
Dunfermline 4
Morton 0
Kelty Hearts 1
Ross County 2
Celtic B 0
Stenhousemuir 4
Berwick 1
Arbroath 1
Queen of the South 0
Airdrieonians 5
Elgin City 0
Annan 0
Ayr 2
Inverness 1
Montrose 0
Clydebank FC 1
Alloa 0
Aberdeen B 1
Queen's Park 2
1/8-finals
Livingston -
Peterhead -
Hamilton -
Cove Rangers -
East Kilbride -
Partick -
Dunfermline -
Kelty Hearts -
Ross County -
Stenhousemuir -
Arbroath -
Airdrieonians -
Ayr -
Inverness -
Clydebank FC -
Queen's Park -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -