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Ayr vs Raith - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship Somerset Park, Ayr
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ayr host Raith in the Championship. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Ayr have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.21 conceded recently, against Raith's 1.59 scored and 1.07 conceded. Head-to-head, Ayr have won 2 to Raith's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 22, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 1.50, favoring Raith. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ayr
30%
Draws
37%
Raith
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Raith

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Raith lately — more wins on the board than Ayr.
  • Model gives Ayr a 42% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Ayr Clean Sheet 16%
Raith Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ayr Raith
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.24 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Championship
Raith vs Ayr
2:0
Mar 27, 2026 Championship
Raith vs Ayr
3:0
Jan 31, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Raith
2:1
Oct 11, 2025 Championship
Raith vs Ayr
0:2
Aug 9, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs Raith
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ayr 41 / 100
Raith 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ayr Raith

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ayr scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Raith's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Ayr went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ayr VS Raith
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ayr

(Home)
16 Oct
Ayr
0 : 1
Partick
10 Oct
Ayr
1 : 1
Dunfermline
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
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Raith

(Away)
17 Oct
Stenhousemuir
1 : 1
Raith
10 Oct
Raith
2 : 0
Queen's Park
03 Oct
Morton
1 : 2
Raith
25 Sept
Raith
0 : 2
Livingston
19 Sept
Partick
0 : 0
Raith
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 10 7 2 1 13:5 23
2 Partick 11 6 4 1 12:4 22
3 Raith 11 6 3 2 16:7 21
4 Inverness 11 4 4 3 14:11 16
5 Dunfermline 10 3 6 1 8:6 15
6 Livingston 11 4 2 5 14:11 14
7 Ayr 11 3 3 5 10:12 12
8 Arbroath 11 3 2 6 7:17 11
9 Morton 11 2 1 8 9:18 7
10 Queen's Park 11 2 1 8 6:18 7
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)