Sport Picks

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AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
AZ Alkmaar W Logo

AZ Alkmaar W

1 - 5
FT
Heerenveen W Logo

Heerenveen W

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Altena A.
Assist: de Haas R.
19' Event
van Lunteren D.
Assist: van Beijeren J.
20'
van Beijeren J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 game between AZ Alkmaar W and Heerenveen W finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heerenveen W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
AZ Alkmaar W
15%
Draws
37%
Heerenveen W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AZ Alkmaar W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • AZ Alkmaar W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
AZ Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 15%
Heerenveen W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AZ Alkmaar W Heerenveen W
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 7 2
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.68 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:5
Jan 18, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W
3:2
Mar 26, 2025 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W
2:3
Nov 24, 2024 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:0
May 11, 2024 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AZ Alkmaar W Compare

Top Goalscorer van Lunteren D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Heerenveen W Compare

Top Goalscorer Altena A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader de Groot F.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AZ Alkmaar W 31 / 100
Heerenveen W 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AZ Alkmaar W Heerenveen W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heerenveen W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AZ Alkmaar W scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Heerenveen W let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

AZ Alkmaar W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AZ Alkmaar W VS Heerenveen W
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AZ Alkmaar W

(Home)
27 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
0 : 5
Twente W
19 Sept
Ajax W
5 : 1
AZ Alkmaar W
13 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
3 : 1
PSV W
06 Sept
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 0
Utrecht W
22 Aug
Feyenoord W
1 : 2
AZ Alkmaar W
Page 1 of 7

Heerenveen W

(Away)
27 Sept
Heerenveen W
2 : 0
Utrecht W
20 Sept
Den Haag W
2 : 2
Heerenveen W
13 Sept
Heerenveen W
3 : 1
Ajax W
06 Sept
Twente W
5 : 1
Heerenveen W
23 Aug
De Graafschap W
1 : 0
Heerenveen W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSV W 22 17 3 2 56:15 54
2 Ajax W 22 15 5 2 55:18 50
3 Feyenoord W 22 14 5 3 45:17 47
4 Twente W 22 14 4 4 55:19 46
5 Utrecht W 22 11 4 7 41:37 37
6 PEC Zwolle W 22 11 1 10 35:32 34
7 Heerenveen W 22 8 2 12 38:51 26
8 AZ Alkmaar W 22 6 6 10 36:46 24
9 Den Haag W 22 6 4 12 24:45 22
10 Hera United W 22 5 5 12 24:42 20
11 SBV Excelsior W 22 2 2 18 18:51 8
12 NAC Breda W 22 2 1 19 17:71 7
Promotion - UEFA Champions League Women (League phase)
Promotion - UEFA Europa Cup Women (Qualification)