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Baghdad vs Zakho - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Fri, Apr 3, 2026
3 - 0
04:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Rostam A.
15' Event
Arzaij A.
43' Event
Matheus Lucas

AI Match Summary

Baghdad host Zakho in the Stars League 2025/2026. This one's hard to separate. Zakho have shipped 1.61 goals a game lately, while Baghdad have conceded 1.9 and scored 1.2. Past meetings favor Baghdad slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 3, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.35 - 1.46) back Zakho to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Baghdad
20%
Draws
50%
Zakho
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Zakho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Zakho lately — more wins on the board than Baghdad.
  • Win probability leans Baghdad's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 16%
Zakho Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baghdad Zakho
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 5 6
Draws 7 9
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1.2 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Stars League
Baghdad vs Zakho
3:0
Jan 9, 2026 Stars League
Zakho vs Baghdad
2:2
May 9, 2024 Stars League
Baghdad vs Zakho
0:0
Feb 16, 2024 Stars League
Zakho vs Baghdad
1:0
Feb 25, 2022 Stars League
Baghdad vs Zakho
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baghdad Compare

Top Goalscorer Arzaij A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Zakho Compare

Top Goalscorer Rostam A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus Lucas
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baghdad 41 / 100
Zakho 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baghdad Zakho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Zakho conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Baghdad's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Baghdad stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baghdad VS Zakho
1.2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.5
60% Over 1.5 75%
60% Over 2.5 63%
60% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Baghdad

(Home)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

Zakho

(Away)
19 Sept
Al Karma
1 : 0
Zakho
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1
Al Mosul
09 Sept
Al Golan
1 : 1
Zakho
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0
Al Talaba
29 Aug
Al Zawraa
4 : 0
Zakho
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)