Sport Picks
Match Events
10'
10'
Redhead O.
19'
19'
Lewis C.
(Penalty)
53'
53'
Davies H.
AI Match Summary
Caerau Ely in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caerau Ely.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baglan Dragons
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Caerau Ely lately — more wins on the board than Baglan Dragons.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Baglan Dragons taking it.
- Regular Cymru South 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 20%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Baglan Dragons | Caerau Ely |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 7 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 16 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.77 | 2.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 28, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely
3:1
Mar 14, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely
0:5
Sep 17, 2025 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Baglan Dragons
2:1
Jan 11, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau Ely
2:1
Nov 1, 2024 Cymru South
Caerau Ely vs Baglan Dragons
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Baglan Dragons Compare
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58
Caerau Ely Compare
Top Goalscorer Davies H.
2 Goals Assists Leader Redhead O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Baglan Dragons 67 / 100
Caerau Ely 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Baglan Dragons Caerau Ely
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Baglan Dragons Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Caerau Ely has conceded goals in 70% of their last 33 outings.
Baglan Dragons went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Away concern: Caerau Ely has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Baglan Dragons VS Caerau Ely
0.71 Goals Scored 1.63
0.57 Goals Conceded 1.63
29% Over 1.5 63%
29% Over 2.5 50%
14% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Baglan Dragons
(Home) 28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
09 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
31 Jul
Trethomas Bluebirds
0 : 0 Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 6
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
09 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 3 Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Baglan Dragons
1 : 1 Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Mar
Baglan Dragons
0 : 7 Carmarthen Town
24 Mar
Baglan Dragons
0 : 0 Cwmbran Celtic
Page 1 of 3
Caerau Ely
(Away) 28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 5 Pure Swansea
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 7
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1 Caerau Ely
14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
11 Jul
Evesham
2 : 0 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trefelin | 30 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 83:17 | 78 |
| 2 | Cambrian United | 30 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 75:20 | 76 |
| 3 | Ammanford Town | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 49:26 | 60 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 66:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 45:38 | 45 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 35:38 | 44 |
| 7 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 50:48 | 40 |
| 8 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 44:47 | 37 |
| 9 | Treowen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51:63 | 37 |
| 10 | Newport City | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 36:48 | 37 |
| 11 | Pontypridd United | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 46:51 | 34 |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 32:57 | 30 |
| 13 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 45:62 | 29 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 26:52 | 25 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27:56 | 23 |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 25:78 | 10 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)
