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Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Baglan Dragons Logo

Baglan Dragons

1 - 2
FT
Carmarthen Town Logo

Carmarthen Town

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Reed L.
51' Event
Thomas L.
65' Event
Jones T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Carmarthen Town in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carmarthen Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Baglan Dragons
20%
Draws
36%
Carmarthen Town
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baglan Dragons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Carmarthen Town have won more games recently than Baglan Dragons.
  • Win probability leans Baglan Dragons's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 13%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baglan Dragons Carmarthen Town
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.77 2.1
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town
0:7
Aug 25, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons
0:0
Apr 5, 2025 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town
1:1
Aug 9, 2024 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Baglan Dragons
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baglan Dragons Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Carmarthen Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Reed L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thomas L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baglan Dragons 40 / 100
Carmarthen Town 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baglan Dragons Carmarthen Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carmarthen Town has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Baglan Dragons found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Baglan Dragons went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Baglan Dragons VS Carmarthen Town
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Baglan Dragons

(Home)
02 Oct
Llanelli
1 : 2
Baglan Dragons
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1
Baglan Dragons
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1
Afan Lido
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Caerphilly
Page 1 of 6

Carmarthen Town

(Away)
02 Oct
Carmarthen Town
1 : 2
Llantwit Major
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2
Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 8 6 2 0 25:6 20
2 Aberystwyth 8 6 1 1 22:8 19
3 Pontypridd United 9 6 1 2 23:16 19
4 Caerau Ely 9 5 1 3 21:18 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 11:11 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 20:19 14
7 Ynyshir Albions 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
8 Treowen 9 4 1 4 18:18 13
9 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 13:17 11
10 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 2 4 3 17:17 10
11 Pontardawe 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
12 Newport City 7 2 2 3 10:6 8
13 Cardiff Draconians 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
14 Caerphilly 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 2 1 5 7:20 7
16 Llanelli 10 0 2 8 7:27 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)