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Bahia vs Jequie - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Baiano Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Jota
24' Event
Tiago Souza
36' Event
Ruan Pablo

AI Match Summary

The Baiano game between Bahia and Jequie finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Bahia
20%
Draws
38%
Jequie
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bahia come out ahead of Jequie on wins alone.
  • 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Bahia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Bahia Clean Sheet 19%
Jequie Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bahia Jequie
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 8
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.65 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Baiano
Bahia vs Jequie
4:2
Jan 29, 2025 Baiano
Jequie vs Bahia
1:3
Mar 16, 2024 Baiano
Bahia vs Jequie
4:1
Mar 9, 2024 Baiano
Jequie vs Bahia
0:1
Jan 18, 2024 Baiano
Bahia vs Jequie
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Pablo
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jota
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Jequie Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiago Souza
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nael
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bahia 32 / 100
Jequie 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bahia Jequie

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jequie Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bahia found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Defensive concern: Jequie conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Bahia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bahia VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bahia

(Home)
09 Oct
Palmeiras
1 : 0
Bahia
20 Sept
Athletico-PR
2 : 1
Bahia
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
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Jequie

(Away)
22 Feb
Jequie
1 : 1
Barcelona FC
12 Feb
Galicia
2 : 1
Jequie
07 Feb
Jequie
2 : 2
Vitoria
04 Feb
Jacuipense
0 : 2
Jequie
29 Jan
Bahia de Feira
1 : 2
Jequie
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bahia 9 7 2 0 26:9 23
2 Vitoria 9 4 4 1 13:4 16
3 Jacuipense 9 3 4 2 11:10 13
4 Juazeirense 9 3 4 2 7:9 13
5 Jequie 9 3 3 3 15:13 12
6 Porto-BA 9 2 5 2 10:12 11
7 Barcelona FC 9 2 4 3 7:15 10
8 Galicia 9 3 0 6 7:14 9
9 Bahia de Feira 9 2 3 4 11:12 9
10 Alagoinhas 9 0 3 6 5:14 3
Promotion - Baiano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Baiano 2 2027 (Main)