Sport Picks
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ethiopia
Premier League 2025/2026 
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
35%
50%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Welwalo Adigrat
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Welwalo Adigrat have won more games recently than Bahir Dar Kenema.
- Model gives Welwalo Adigrat a 50% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Bahir Dar Kenema Clean Sheet 27%
Welwalo Adigrat Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bahir Dar Kenema | Welwalo Adigrat |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 12 |
| Draws | 18 | 12 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.66 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
0:0
Dec 29, 2025 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:0
Jun 25, 2025 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
3:0
Sep 21, 2024 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:1
May 2, 2020 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bahir Dar Kenema 22 / 100
Welwalo Adigrat 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bahir Dar Kenema Welwalo Adigrat
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Welwalo Adigrat Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Bahir Dar Kenema stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Bahir Dar Kenema found the back of the net in 41% of recent matches (29 games).
Welwalo Adigrat has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 0.80 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Bahir Dar Kenema VS Welwalo Adigrat
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Bahir Dar Kenema
(Home) 03 Jul
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
2 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
28 Jun
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 1 Sidama Bunna
21 Jun
Hawassa
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
16 Jun
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 2 Welayta Dicha
30 May
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 1 Sidama Bunna
16 Jun
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 2 Welayta Dicha
19 May
Bahir Dar Kenema
1 : 1 Mechal SC
10 May
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
01 May
Bahir Dar Kenema
1 : 1 Shire Endaselassie
Page 1 of 3
Welwalo Adigrat
(Away) 12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1 Hilal Alsahil
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 St. Georges
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
16 Jun
Sheger Ketema FC
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
21 May
Adama City
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
