Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Lichinga

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola game between Baia de Pemba and Ferroviario Lichinga finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baia de Pemba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Baia de Pemba
20%
Draws
40%
Ferroviario Lichinga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ferroviario Lichinga come out ahead of Baia de Pemba on wins alone.
  • Model gives Baia de Pemba a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Lichinga Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baia de Pemba Ferroviario Lichinga
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 7 11
Draws 9 6
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 0.69 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.92 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2026 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Lichinga
2:1
May 24, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Lichinga vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
Nov 19, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Lichinga vs Baia de Pemba
3:0
Aug 10, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Lichinga
2:2
Sep 29, 2024 Mocambola
Ferroviario Lichinga vs Baia de Pemba
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baia de Pemba 42 / 100
Ferroviario Lichinga 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baia de Pemba Ferroviario Lichinga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Baia de Pemba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Baia de Pemba found the back of the net in 42% of recent matches (26 games).

Ferroviario Lichinga let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

Baia de Pemba VS Ferroviario Lichinga
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
13% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baia de Pemba

(Home)
13 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
2 : 0
Baia de Pemba
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
19 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Costa do Sol
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Ferroviario Lichinga

(Away)
16 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
13 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
3 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
30 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
17 Aug
Sofala
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 19 13 5 1 28:9 44
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
5 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
6 UD Songo 17 5 10 2 16:13 25
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 19 4 6 9 8:19 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 17 1 7 9 8:19 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)