Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Baia de Pemba vs Sofala

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Sat, Jul 18, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Baia de Pemba host Sofala in the Mocambola. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent numbers: Baia de Pemba at 0.38 goals for, 0.88 against; Sofala at 0.5 for, 0.88 against. Past meetings favor Baia de Pemba slightly — 0-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 18, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (0.63 xG vs 0.69) point toward Baia de Pemba. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Baia de Pemba
11%
Draws
9%
Sofala
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Baia de Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Baia de Pemba have won more games recently than Sofala.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Baia de Pemba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.4%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Sofala Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baia de Pemba Sofala
Matches Played 25 9
Wins 7 2
Draws 8 4
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 0.38 0.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Sofala
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baia de Pemba 76 / 100
Sofala 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baia de Pemba Sofala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Baia de Pemba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Sofala lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Baia de Pemba's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 25 recent games.

Sofala has conceded goals in 44% of their last 9 outings.

Scoring Trends

Baia de Pemba VS Sofala
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Baia de Pemba

(Home)
01 Jul
Chingale de Tete
0 : 0
Baia de Pemba
26 Jun
UD Songo
1 : 1
Baia de Pemba
18 Jun
Baia de Pemba
2 : 2
ENH Vilankulo
24 May
Ferroviario Lichinga
1 : 0
Baia de Pemba
14 May
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0
Baia de Pemba
Page 1 of 5

Sofala

(Away)
02 Jul
Sofala
1 : 3
Ferroviario Nampula
29 Jun
Sofala
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
21 Jun
Associacao Black Bulls
4 : 1
Sofala
18 Jun
Ferroviario Maputo
2 : 0
Sofala
24 May
Sofala
1 : 0
Maxaquene
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ferroviario Beira954011:319
2UD Songo944112:816
3Associacao Black Bulls835010:314
4Ferroviario Lichinga74218:414
5Ferroviario Nampula741211:1113
6Costa do Sol833210:712
7Ferroviario Nacala73316:412
8Sofala92435:1010
9ENH Vilankulo81619:79
10Ferroviario Maputo82243:58
11AD Pemba72144:97
12Maxaquene90454:114
13Chingale de Tete90451:84
14Baia de Pemba70343:73
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