Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Carvalho I.
90' Event
Degree

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola 2025 game between Baia de Pemba and Textafrica finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Baia de Pemba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Baia de Pemba
20%
Draws
23%
Textafrica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baia de Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Baia de Pemba come out ahead of Textafrica on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Baia de Pemba taking it.
  • Regular Mocambola 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 68%
Textafrica Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Baia de Pemba Textafrica
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 11 5
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 0.87 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 21, 2025 Mocambola
Textafrica vs Baia de Pemba
0:0
Aug 27, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica
2:0
Sep 24, 2024 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica
2:1
May 26, 2024 Mocambola
Textafrica vs Baia de Pemba
2:1
Sep 29, 2019 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Textafrica
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Baia de Pemba Compare

Top Goalscorer Carvalho I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Degree
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Textafrica Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Baia de Pemba 68 / 100
Textafrica 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Baia de Pemba Textafrica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baia de Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Textafrica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Baia de Pemba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Textafrica's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Baia de Pemba VS Textafrica
0.38 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
25% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Baia de Pemba

(Home)
13 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
2 : 0
Baia de Pemba
02 Sept
Baia de Pemba
2 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
19 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Costa do Sol
Page 1 of 6

Textafrica

(Away)
07 Dec
Ferroviario Beira
1 : 0
Textafrica
27 Nov
UD Songo
5 : 1
Textafrica
23 Nov
Textafrica
3 : 1
Desportivo de Nacala
13 Nov
Textafrica
0 : 2
ENH Vilankulo
09 Nov
Textafrica
0 : 0
Ferroviario Maputo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Songo 22 18 3 1 50:13 57
2 Associacao Black Bulls 23 11 6 6 35:26 39
3 Ferroviario Beira 23 10 7 6 19:13 37
4 Ferroviario Lichinga 22 9 7 6 38:31 34
5 Ferroviario Maputo 23 7 12 4 25:18 33
6 Baia de Pemba 22 9 5 8 24:21 32
7 ENH Vilankulo 24 7 10 7 22:21 31
8 Costa do Sol 23 7 10 6 18:18 31
9 Ferroviario Nacala 23 8 7 8 16:17 31
10 Chingale de Tete 22 6 9 7 22:21 27
11 Ferroviario Nampula 22 6 8 8 21:29 26
12 Textafrica 23 4 8 11 15:30 20
13 Desportivo de Nacala 20 2 6 12 13:31 12
14 Desportivo Matola 22 2 4 16 11:40 10
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)