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Bangladesh vs India

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Bashundhara Kings Arena, Dhaka
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Morsalin S.
Assist: Hossain R.
28'
Sub
Kazi T. In: Topu S. A.
Out: Kazi T.
34'
Jhingan S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Bangladesh
20%
Draws
32%
India
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bangladesh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Bangladesh carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Bangladesh have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor India, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Bangladesh Clean Sheet 18%
India Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bangladesh India
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 6 5
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.7 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Asian Cup
Bangladesh vs India
1:0
Mar 25, 2025 Asian Cup
India vs Bangladesh
0:0
Oct 4, 2021 SAFF Championship
Bangladesh vs India
1:1
Jun 7, 2021 World Championship
Bangladesh vs India
0:2
Oct 15, 2019 World Championship
India vs Bangladesh
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bangladesh Compare

Top Goalscorer Morsalin S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

India Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bangladesh 32 / 100
India 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bangladesh India

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

India's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 27 matches.

Difficult form: India registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Bangladesh scored in 44% of their last 27 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Bangladesh VS India
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bangladesh

(Home)
28 Sept
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
25 Sept
Bangladesh
0 : 3
Malaysia
05 Jun
San Marino
1 : 2
Bangladesh
31 Mar
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
26 Mar
Vietnam
3 : 0
Bangladesh
Page 1 of 6

India

(Away)
25 Sept
India
1 : 1
Panama
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
30 May
India
0 : 1
Zimbabwe
27 May
Jamaica
2 : 0
India
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tajikistan 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Philippines 6 4 2 0 16:6 14
3 Maldives 6 1 0 5 3:13 3
4 Timor-Leste 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Yemen 6 4 2 0 20:1 14
2 Lebanon 6 4 1 1 14:2 13
3 Bhutan 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
4 Brunei 6 1 0 5 3:22 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Singapore 6 4 2 0 8:4 14
2 Hong Kong 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Bangladesh 6 1 2 3 6:8 5
4 India 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 6 5 0 1 16:5 15
2 Turkmenistan 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Sri Lanka 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Chinese Taipei 6 0 0 6 5:19 0
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Syria 6 6 0 0 21:2 18
2 Myanmar 6 4 0 2 8:11 12
3 Afghanistan 6 0 2 4 4:11 2
4 Pakistan 6 0 2 4 2:11 2
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam 6 6 0 0 17:2 18
2 Malaysia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 Laos 6 2 0 4 4:16 6
4 Nepal 6 1 0 5 5:8 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)