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Bangladesh vs Maldives

World World

World Championship 2026 Bashundhara Kings Arena, Dhaka
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Hossain R.
Assist: Fahim M.
19'
Rana S.
36' Event
Aisham I.

AI Match Summary

Bangladesh in this World Championship 2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bangladesh
20%
Draws
29%
Maldives
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bangladesh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Bangladesh have won more games recently than Maldives.
  • Win probability leans Bangladesh's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Bangladesh have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bangladesh, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Bangladesh Clean Sheet 68%
Maldives Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bangladesh Maldives
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 4
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2024 Friendly International
Bangladesh vs Maldives
2:1
Nov 13, 2024 Friendly International
Bangladesh vs Maldives
0:1
Oct 17, 2023 World Championship
Bangladesh vs Maldives
2:1
Oct 12, 2023 World Championship
Maldives vs Bangladesh
1:1
Jun 25, 2023 SAFF Championship
Bangladesh vs Maldives
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bangladesh Compare

Top Goalscorer Hossain R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fahim M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Maldives Compare

Top Goalscorer Aisham I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bangladesh 86 / 100
Maldives 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bangladesh Maldives

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bangladesh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldives has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Bangladesh has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Maldives lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bangladesh VS Maldives
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bangladesh

(Home)
05 Jun
San Marino
1 : 2
Bangladesh
31 Mar
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
26 Mar
Vietnam
3 : 0
Bangladesh
18 Nov
Bangladesh
1 : 0
India
13 Nov
Bangladesh
2 : 2
Nepal
Page 1 of 7

Maldives

(Away)
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
31 Mar
Maldives
2 : 1
Timor-Leste
18 Nov
Maldives
0 : 2
Philippines
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Afghanistan 2
Mongolia 0
Maldives 2
Bangladesh 3
Singapore 3
Guam 1
Yemen 4
Sri Lanka 1
Myanmar 5
Macau 1
Cambodia 0
Pakistan 1
Chinese Taipei 7
Timor-Leste 0
Indonesia 12
Brunei 0
Hong Kong 4
Bhutan 2
Nepal 2
Laos 1